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东北的经济为何起不来？未来东北要怎么发展？

来源：名资汇网 caiji007 2023-09-27 04:35:09

新一年伊始，围绕年度GDP省份排名展开的议论与猜测在坊间广为流传，其中东北三省的GDP排名曾一度垫底，为什么东北三省的GDP排名还不如西南地区？还有人说往年经常提起的振兴东北为啥不提了？

谈工业：日俄留下了大量的工业基础，城市建设，东北工业基础雄厚；农业方面：黑土地肥沃，农业发达；谈资源：大面积，人口少，地产资源丰富等等，我国东北地区的优势这么大，东北的经济为何起不来？

一、东北地区真的有那么大的优势吗？

国有企业大概占东北经济的20%-30%，远低于上海60%的水平。事实上，东北国有企业大多是资源型企业，技术比较先进，但利润不高甚至亏损，比如除了石油，其实煤、林、钢等都是亏损。

当然，东北也有少数[文]技术型国有企业，如[章]吉化、哈电、一重等[来]，但属于国有企业，[自]利润极低。还有兵工[历]企业，如大连船、沈[史]飞、哈飞等，这与地[大]方无关。

说白了，东北重工是个技术活，出苦力，赚的钱慢，这和阿里腾讯比赚钱，但是和阿里的腾讯比起来，比国防建设和阿里的腾讯要比得上国家利益、比国防建设更有优势。

再者农业，如今黑土地随时代进步，早就克服了蚊虫叮咬的难题，所谓的“利弊参半”，现在只剩下土壤肥沃的优势，这也让黑龙江成为了全国第一粮食主产区，更让东北成为全国第一粮食主产区，更大的“饭碗”，所谓的“利弊参半”。

对于油田等资源，实际上大庆油田的利税是属于国家的。建设大庆市，是靠省划拨和地方财政收入，与油田相比，实际上差距很大。也有类似于油田的农垦、森工、煤炭等，这些都是东北企业的名义，是直属国家，与东北没有关系。

二、东北经济发展存在哪些客观劣势？

1、地区劣势

交通不便，东三省经济同质化程度高，基本都是重工业+农业，区域内没有形成有效的分工，导致一些产业效率低下。

主要的工业产品和农[全]产品最经济的运输方[网]式是海运，从龙江到[文]大连港的距离看起来[章]很近，实际上哈尔滨[来]到大连与上海到厦门[自]的距离大致相等，黑[历]河到大连和上海到广[史]州的距离大致相等，[大]这就导致了黑、吉和[全]其他省份联系比较不[网]便，价格竞争力也随[文]之下降。

例如吉林号称换热器城，随着产业做大，很多优质企业搬到了大连，需要依托大连港进行运输，而吉林的运输成本太高，这是没有办法的。

2、产业结构

东北农业发展不错，这是确实的，但农业附加值较低，而且农产品同样需要大宗海运，而从龙江或吉林陆运到港口的部分利润已经被剥离。

在资源上，部分原因[章]是由于计划经济时期[来]国家对资源进行配置[自]，留下的产值没有固[历]定下来。

例如对俄贸易一直在进行，但与俄远东地区接壤，本身并不富裕，人也很少。每个城市的支柱产业都有些单一，毕竟人口少、市场小、多元化发展不能支撑。

3、人口外流

1978年改革开放，90年代初期的南海画了一个圆圈，有许多东北人看中机会也好，响应政策也好，南下是需要人才，一方面是计划经济体制下的问题。

例如，1980年广[史]东省委书记仲夷(原[大]辽宁省委书记)和厉[全]有为(辽宁人，深圳[网]第五任书记)，就曾[文]经抽调和吸引了大批[章]国企中层干部和技术[来]骨干，同时又在那里[自]支持和吸引了大批国[历]企中层干部和技术骨[史]干。

随着改革开放的深入，广东(特别是深圳)、上海的就业岗位需求和待遇远超其他地区，对高校毕业生的吸引力更高，公务员队伍也会出现断层，因此必然会对营商环境产生影响。

三、未来东北，大概率是继续去工业化，打造农区龙头。

未来东北，很大可能是继续去工业化，逐步彻底变成农业区，因为农业是东北唯一具有较强竞争力的产业，而农业对地理环境要求极高，经过这么多年的开发，东北经过这几年的发展，其良好的农业条件，可以在相当程度上解决东北经济运行成本高、物流成本高的问题。

当然，这些年来国家一直在针对这一情况做规划、准备，农化企业在东北的大规模业务拓展，尤其是粮食和农资储藏规模的扩大，实际上是有国家要求进行前期准备的因素。

创造东北农区龙头，[大]才有真正的优势，正[全]是因为：

虽然东北地区的人口密度很高，但随着科学技术的进步，工业和农业并不需要那么多人，发展第三产业的人口密度还不够。大房价不能上涨，导致通过土地财政转移其他产业负担，支持其他产业发展的项目作用有限，农业显然更具竞争力。

而东北则属于移民社[网]会，一般家族势力小[文]，改革开放以来，集[章]体创业很难形成，个[来]体创业缺少人力物力[自]财力，很难成为大器[历]，我们经常看到，他[史]们对家乡消费市场的[大]依恋程度低，如果外[全]地有更好的发展机会[网]，个人创业缺少人力[文]物力财力。

简单地说，靠山吃山靠水吃水，地理条件对人类文明的制约是僵化和深远的，特殊历史条件下的特殊情况也会随着历史条件的变化同步发生变化。改革开放40年，东北前25年发展得还不错，80年代GDP都是全国前十名，90年代就没有这么强了，但相对来说，东北仍然是全国生活质量最好的地区，尤其是在经济方面。

与此同时，人均GD[章]P和人均收入也不算[来]低，城市建设、教育[自]医疗水平还不错，房[历]价物价低，人民生活[史]水平还不差，还不能[大]说没有发展起来。


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